Vol. 19 No. 3
Time series analysis and forecasting for major wheat producing states in India using ARIMA and Holt’s linear trend method
Author(s): SUMAN, P. GODARA, R. K. TIWARI, P. MISHRA AND S. RAY
Abstract: The wheat crop dominates Indian agriculture, making it vital for policymakers and food security planners to anticipate wheat production. In order to forecast wheat production statistics for India and five of its major wheat-producing states from 1950–51 to 2019–20, the research empirically compares the two most popular forecasting techniques Holt's linear trend approach and Box Jenkin's Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average model. Data was used for model construction from 1950–51 to 2014–15 and for testing from 2015–16 to 2019–20. Although each model could independently produce accurate projections, comparative measurements showed that Holt's technique performed better than ARIMA for both area and yield forecasting of wheat crop in this research. Whereas, ARIMA and Holt's method performed equally well for wheat production in almost all the states. On the basis of the developed models, projections from 2019–20 through 2029–2030 have been made. The effectiveness of statistical tools to forecast wheat production may be further enhanced by the inclusion of production factor input.
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